It's 2010 and you know what that means... it's time to take the pulse of this year's Oscar race and revise my predictions accordingly. But first, here are the Top 5 Biggest Questions Heading Into the Home Stretch:
1. Q: Does Pixar's UP have a Best Picture nomination in the bag?
A: Beyond its first 20 minutes, I thought UP was pretty disappointing. It more or less already has the Oscar for Best Animated Feature (although FANTASTIC MR. FOX is coming on strong), so personally, I'd like to see another movie take its place in The Ten. That said, a Best Picture nomination is looking more and more likely as late releases like INVICTUS, NINE and THE LOVELY BONES are turning up DOA at the holiday box office.
2. Q: Can A SINGLE MAN win over enough voters to secure a Best Picture nomination?
A: God, I hope so... but probably not. I'm not hearing/seeing the traction it needs outside of Colin Firth's magnificent performance, which in my humble opinion is, without rival, the best of the year. The movie itself just isn't getting the attention it deserves. Harvey Weinstein should stop spending on NINE and start "paying" attention to Tom Ford's debut.
3. Q: What's the deal with THE LAST STATION? Did anybody actually see this movie? Are Helen Mirren and Christopher Plummer both sure things?
A: I haven't seen THE LAST STATION but Mirren/Plummer are really messing up my predictions. Mirren I can live with because, well, she's Helen Mirren and I'm not that passionate about the lead actresses who would be left out (although I never saw Tilda Swinton in JULIA). But a "career achievement" nomination for Plummer? C'mon! There are a lot of deserving actors this year whose careers would definitely be helped by a supporting nomination. Can't we just pretend this movie never happened and nominate Emily Blunt or Abbie Cornish (or preferably Maya Rudolph from AWAY WE GO) for Best Actress and either Alfred Molina or Peter Sarsgaard from AN EDUCATION (or BROTHERS' Tobey Maguire or FISH TANK's Michael Fassbender)?
4. Q: Speaking of Best Supporting Actor, that's the deepest race this year. Can THE HURT LOCKER'S Anthony Mackie sneak in?
A: I think so. THE HURT LOCKER was by far the best movie of the year and Mackie was the cast's standout. Jeremy Renner may drive the movie's action but Mackie is the picture's heart and soul. It's a breakout performance that deserves to be properly recognized. But again, he's up against some tough competition, and the press seems to be seizing on Woody Harrelson and Alec Baldwin's late heat for THE MESSENGER and IT'S COMPLICATED, respectively.
5. Q: Does INVICTUS merit any attention outside of Morgan Freeman's lead performance, and is there any debate in the Best Actor category?
A: INVICTUS was a total rush job by Clint Eastwood that failed as a sports movie and as a movie about Nelson Mandela, so no, it deserves to be ignored with the exception of Freeman, who wasn't even that great as Mandela but nonetheless was good enough in a weak field. The same goes for Daniel Day-Lewis in NINE, but both awards season veterans should find enough good will to secure nominations. It'd be an Oscar travesty if Jeremy Renner isn't nominated for carrying THE HURT LOCKER. He's probably the last guy in but that's OK since there's not really a sixth man threatening his position. The predicted five should be safe.
Without further ado, here are The InSneider's latest predictions for the 82nd Academy Awards. Let's take a look, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
ALT: A Single Man
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Neill Blomkamp, District 9
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
ALT: None
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
ALT: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Tobey Maguire, Brothers
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious
ALT: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
ALT: Up
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
District 9
Precious
A Single Man
Up in the Air
ALT: Julie & Julia
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
ALT: Ponyo
BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Beaches of Agnes
Burma VJ
The Cove
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African
ALT: Food, Inc.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
ALT: The White Ribbon
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up
ALT: Sherlock Holmes
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
The Young Victoria
ALT: Public Enemies
BEST ART DIRECTION
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Nine
A Serious Man
ALT: Star Trek
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
ALT: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
The (Non-Doc/Foreign/Short) Contenders: 9, 500 Days of Summer, Amelia, An Education, Antichrist, Anvil: The Story of Anvil, Avatar, Away We Go, The Blind Side, The Boys Are Back, Bright Star, Broken Embraces, Bronson, Brothers, Bruno, Capitalism: A Love Story, Cheri, A Christmas Carol, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Coco Before Chanel, Collapse, Coraline, The Cove, Crazy Heart, Crude, The Damned United, District 9, Everybody's Fine, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Fish Tank, Food Inc., Funny People, The Hangover, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Humpday, The Hurt Locker, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, The Informant!, Inglourious Basterds, In the Loop, Invictus, It's Complicated, Julie & Julia, The Last Station, The Lovely Bones, The Men Who Stare at Goats, Moon, Nine, Ponyo, Precious, The Princess and the Frog, Public Enemies, The Road, A Serious Man, A Single Man, Sin Nombre, The Soloist, Star Trek, The Stoning of Soraya M., Sugar, Taking Woodstock, Terminator Salvation, Tetro, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Up, Up in the Air, Valentino: The Last Emperor, Watchmen, Whatever Works, Where the Wild Things Are, The White Ribbon, The Young Victoria
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